With the first matches just days away, I thought it was time to offer my prognostications for the 2008-09 Premiership season. This is not to be taken all the way to the bank (as if?) and with another three weeks before the transfer deadline hits there will no doubt be many pivotal signings made between now and that time. However, perhaps these will balance out between the teams and what I pick now will hardly change by September. We shall see…Whatever, I’m doing it anyway…(Final predicted 08-09 finish in brackets)
It’s hard to think that anyone will break the oft-mentioned stranglehold of The Big Four at the top of the league. The usual pretenders no doubt think they have a chance but in reality, over the 38 (not 39 thank god!) games, this will not happen and the top teams’ strength in depth plus overall superior quality will surely mean they finish one through four once again…ad nauseum.
With that being said I think perhaps one significant change within that group will occur – Liverpool (2nd) usurping Chelsea (3rd) as the runner-up to Man U. (1st). Benitez has improved his squad yet again (and needs to have early season success if his own position is not to come under threat) and with Torres and Keane perhaps being the most successful partnership in the league and Barry joining Gerrard in the middle, I see them slipping past Chelsea, who with a new manager and few new signings, may be in a transition period. It’s hard to go against Man U to win it all and even though at the time of writing they have yet to sign the extra forward they need, I cannot see them failing to do so and once again being the team to beat. As for Arsenal (4th), once more they will play lots of good football but I cannot see their young-ish team finishing above these other three.
Now to the interesting part of of The Premiership – The Battle for 5th (Premiership ‘B’ if you like)…Several teams have made efforts in the off-season to improve their squads, some more successfully than others, and it would appear that this “battle’ will be very close. Everton (7th) claimed 5th last season but with little movement in the transfer market to this point they may well slip a little despite the continued excellent leadership of David Moyes…To be replaced by, dare I say it, Aston Villa (5th)…Martin O’Neill, a very shrewd and smart manager, I must say, has made a number of excellent signings, particularly in defense with Friedel in goal (one of the division’s best and now backed up by the U.S.A.’s young Guzan), two England full-backs in Luke Young and Shorey, and just yesterday, the young Spanish star and player of the year in Scotland (so what, you may say) Carlos Cuellar. Add Steve Sidwell in the middle and probably a couple of more signings with the Gareth Barry money (if the end of this long-running saga ever happens), and you have a very solid squad – certainly one that will be up there challenging for the European spots next May…
Other teams in this group will be Tottenham (6th) who may well be 5th best on paper but this is Tottenham remember- perennial underachievers; Man City (9th) will slip a little but not much if their off-field problems do not interfere too much, not to mention that they had a great start last season and will probably not repeat this; Portsmouth (8th) under the excellent tutelage of Harry Redknapp and following some very good signings should hold steady; and perhaps Blackburn (11th) but I do think they will slip to mid-table as Paul Ince struggles to learn the managerial ropes at the top level…
The Rovers will probably settle in mid-table with the likes of Newcastle (10th) – with Keegan’s job under threat if they have a bad start; West Ham (13th) who may slip into the dogfight to avoid relegation with Curbishley also in the hot seat, and Middlesbro (12th), where my mate Gareth Southgate continues to do a very solid, if unspectacular, job…
The remaining teams – those that struggled last season along with the newly promoted trio, will be fighting for Premiership survival. Of this group, Roy Hodgson has done the most work in the transfer market, he needed to, and I think his Fulham (14th) will do relatively well. I hate to say it but Steve Bruce seems to have his Wigan (15th) players believing in him (for now) and even without the help of their awful pitch (surely it’s been re-laid) they will survive; and then there is Roy Keane’s Sunderland (16th) who will earn enough points at home in The Stadium of Good Fortune to once again survive…
The bottom four are going to find points very hard to come by. I’ve never been an admirer of Bolton’s (18th) Gary Megson, and think he should be plying his trade in the lower divisions – which he probably will be doing next year as The Wanderers go down. His former team, West Brom (17th), were the class of The Championship last year, playing some very nice football, and I believe this will give them just enough to survive this time round. The bottom two spots will go to Stoke ((19th) and Hull City (20th), with one or both of them breaking the lowest point total as the gap between the top and bottom becomes bigger than ever…
So, there you have it. I’m confident that many of these selections will be somewhat accurate – not because of my miraculous insights but due to the fact that the Premiership has become that predictable. However, there are always one or two surprises with a couple of teams either having surprisingly good (Pompey last year) or disappointingly bad seasons (Spurs) …I’m really looking forward to it, particularly that “battle” just below the Top Four and, if nothing else, I’m quietly confident of beating the B.B.C.’s Mark Lawrenson (“Lawro”) in our Weekly Result Prediction Challenge…
Claret & Light Blue and thanking you all for your continued support for this blog…