I was afraid my predition of the BlueNoses to go down was more a selection of the heart and soul rather than anything else. It’s comforting to find other, far more impartial, prognosticators agree…Read on
That sinking feeling
by Dale Johnson, Soccernet Article…Thanks to Paul B Jr for sending this in…
Fulham’s battling victory over Everton at the weekend breathed new life into their bid to extend their Premier League shelf-life into an eighth season. Jimmy Bullard’s return has given Fulham a chance of staying up
Many had begun to consider Fulham as dead in the water. Roy Hodgson failed to wave an instantly effective magic wand after taking over from the hapless Lawrie Sanchez. Is a real possibility that he could ‘do a Curbishley’ and drag a club from almost certain relegation to safety?
With Derby County long since doomed, it looks to be two from eight. What sets the bottom four clubs apart from other strugglers is their form on the road. Derby, Fulham, Bolton and Sunderland have won only one of a possible 58 away matches between them. The other five clubs boast nine away wins between them. In all likelihood, teams such as Fulham are going to have to win on the road at some point if they are to maintain a realistic hope of staying in the top division. It could be that 38 points may well see a team safe.
Here we take a club-by-club look at those in trouble with eight games remaining.
Wigan Athletic – 12th – 31 points
Wigan would be about level with Derby now had they stuck with Chris Hutchings as manager. It was one of the most glaring ‘doomed to failure’ appointments in years. Apart from Les Reed, of course. With Steve Bruce back at the helm, Wigan have been a much tougher proposition and look an organised unit. Dropping Titus Bramble has certainly helped. With the error-prone former Newcastle defender in their side they won five out of 25 Premier League games and latterly lost three games on the bounce. Since Bramble was left out, Wigan have played five won three, drawn two and have not conceded a single goal. It’s no coincidence. Victory over Bolton at the weekend was crucial and provided breathing space. Wigan’s away form is poor so much will rely on performances at the JJB. Unbeaten in four matches with an unblemished defensive record, a trip to face the Latics is no longer easy pickings. With Birmingham, Tottenham and Reading still to make the trip they will hope to gain the points required from those matches before Manchester United visit on the final day. Having a fully fit squad helps too, They should be in the division in 2008/09.
Middlesbrough – 13th – 31 points
Though still far from safe for this season, Gareth Southgate’s team will surely have enough to avoid the drop. With three wins on the road they are the best travellers in the bottom half of the division and underlined that with a draw at Arsenal last weekend. Boro have struggled to find consistency for much of the season with a dip in form just as they seemed to be pulling clear. But the Teesside club have clearly improved and are a far better side than the one which found life hard in the opening months. Afonso Alves will be concentrating of fitness work over the remaining matches and Southgate will not expect the £12million-man to make a real impression until next season. That means Tuncay Sanli and Jeremie Aliadiere will have to continue sharing the goals alongside Stewart Downing, who has enjoyed his most productive season to date. Boro, also free of injuries, will expect to move to the brink of safety when they host Derby at the weekend and they need to improve a home record. Only the Rams have fewer victories on their own turf. If they fail to beat Derby then they could be sucked back in with back-to-back games against Chelsea and Manchester United to follow. The matches against Bolton and at Sunderland will also be crucial but Boro should have not real worries.
Newcastle – 14th – 29 points
The draw at Birmingham left Kevin Keegan with plenty of positives despite ‘the Messiah’ still waiting to record a victory following his return from a circus. The second-half display showed that Newcastle retain fire in their bellies and are willing to scrap to stay in the division. Of course, they need to produce this on a regular basis or else they will be in dire straits. The problem is clear, and it has been for years. Only Derby have conceded more goals and have a worse goal difference than the Magpies. James Milner, Emre, Steven Carr and Shay Given remain on the treatment table and Keegan needs them all back as soon as possible. At least he has Mark Viduka fit again – for now. With away games against Tottenham, Portsmouth, West Ham and Everton on the horizon there cannot be much confidence of adding to the nine points they have picked up on the road. Maybe the raft of ex-Newcastle players at Upton Park can help them out. Newcastle’s future will rest on the next three home matches as they host fellow strugglers Fulham, Reading and then Sunderland in what promises to be an electric north east derby. Their final home match is against Chelsea. If Newcastle do not win at least two of those huge six pointers at St James’ Park they will be doomed. But do they have the stomach for the fight?
Reading – 15th – 28 points
The Royals looked to be in freefall when they slumped to a club record eighth successive league defeat at home to Aston Villa at the end of February. But back-to-back wins against Middlesbrough (their first away from home this term) and Manchester City have raised their hopes. Steve Coppell’s strikers have let him down badly this term. Leroy Lita (7 goals 2006/07) has been loaned out to Charlton while Kevin Doyle (13) has scored only five goals and last scored on December 8 – his only strike in four and a half months. Reading are another side who rely heavily on their home form – they’ve only picked up six points on the road and, much like Newcastle, they still have to host their relegation rivals. Birmingham make the trip at the weekend with Fulham to follow on April 12. They must win both of those matches to end any doubts about a third season in the Premier League. Only two of their remaining games are against sides from the top half – at home to Blackburn and away to Arsenal. With a trip to Derby on the final day, at least Reading can be safe in the knowledge that should they need something going into the last round of games they can barely have been handed an easier fixture.
Birmingham – 16th – 27 points
Blues had a real chance to send out a statement by beating Newcastle but in the event they froze. Another home game has gone and Alex McLeish must see it as a missed opportunity. In James McFadden, McLeish probably made one of the signings of the recent transfer window. He’s netted four goals in six starts since being signed from Everton in January. His form will be the difference between the club staying up or making a swift return to the Championship. With just four home wins this term, McLeish is going to have to find a way of winning at St Andrew’s. And with travelsick Manchester City next to make the trip they have a real opportunity to pick up three points. But Blues’ greatest test will come on the road with three of their four remaining away games. They must go to Reading, Wigan and Fulham. Such is the nature of six pointers, they have to win at least one of these matches. Losing Sebastian Larsson to a knee injury is a significant blow. They must hope he is not out for the season. Oliver Kapo’s return is required too. McLeish faces a real fight to keep Blues up with such challenging and important away games. Unless they start winning at home, it could be they that join Derby in the second tier. Everton, Liverpool and Blackburn are their final three home matches and that looks troublesome.
Sunderland – 17th – 27 points
Another team over-reliant on their home form, Sunderland have managed just three points – all in draws – away from the Stadium of Light. If they’d just managed a couple of victories, like Newcastle and Birmingham, they would be almost clear of the scrap. As it is they cannot buy a win on the road. With seven home wins their record is formidable and with difficult games against Chelsea and Everton now in the past they will look to the matches against West Ham, Man City and Middlesbrough for most of their points for safety. They will also hope Arsenal visit the Stadium of Light on the final day without points being a necessity. After Villa at the weekend, Sunderland’s remaining away games are crucial ones at Fulham, Newcastle and Bolton with that final meeting at the Reebok surely central to both team’s hopes. Roy Keane, with only one win in six, badly needs Kenwyne Jones to rediscover his form with only one goal – that coming at Christmas – since the end of October. But no striker has more assists this season (10 in Sunderland’s 26 goals) than the Trinidad & Tobago international so while he is not scoring he remains a highly useful weapon.
Bolton Wanderers – 18th – 25 points
Jussi Jaaskelainen’s injury leaves Bolton short of experience between the sticks
Last weekend’s defeat at ten-man Wigan was a huge blow for the Trotters, who had rested all their star names from their UEFA Cup run in readiness for the match. And now Gary Megson finds his team very much in the mire and two points adrift of the safety zone. The loss of experienced goalkeeper Jussi Jasskelainen for the remainder of the season with a back injury is a real blow and they will have to rely on the unknown quantity that is Oman international keeper Ali Al Habsi. That comes on the back of terrible form for Bolton. Four successive defeats, and one win in eight, has sent them back down the table after an initially encouraging set of results after Megson took charge. There’s no doubt that Bolton have some quality players in their squad. Kevin Nolan, Kevin Davies, El Hadji Diouf and Matthew Taylor are all capable of winning matches. But whether they have the players to roll their sleeves up for a scrap is another question – probably for Diouf more than any other. And considering Megson’s negative tactics, does he have it within him as a manager to win enough of the deciding games? Bolton’s game in hand is at Old Trafford almost renders it worthless, and with other away games at Aston Villa, Middlesbrough, Tottenham and Chelsea they have a difficult run-in. Much will rest on their home form. Manchester City, poor on their travels, have to go to the Reebok along with Arsenal, West Ham and, last of all, a six-pointer against Sunderland on the penultimate weekend. With the 10-goal Nicolas Anelka not replaced, the goals have dried up, just seven being scored in the 11 games since Christmas. And there’s little sign of where they will now come from.
Fulham – 19th – 23 points
The victory over Everton has given Fulham fans some hope of staying in the Premier League. But with only eight games left it still means they will need five victories to be sure of safety. It’s difficult to see this collection of players being able to produce that form. Fulham do not have a Carlos Tevez to work wonders. What is in the Cottagers favour is that five of the remaining games are against relegation rivals. They have the ability to stop others scoring points while they climb upwards. Brian McBride’s return to fitness has been a huge boost as he is the only striker they have who is able to effectively lead the line. Earlier in the season they were forced to play Clint Dempsey as a forward. And in Jimmy Bullard they now have a player who is able to orchestrate moves and change a game. Fulham’s atrocious away form has been well documented. They have not won on their travels in the Premier League since a 2-1 success at Newcastle way back in September 2006. And with Fulham making that same trip this weekend they will be desperate for a repeat performance. The game at St James’ has huge significance. It could give Keegan his first win and put Newcastle in a strong position. Or it could push Fulham closer to the pack and drag the Magpies right into it. Fulham have to entertain Sunderland, Liverpool and Birmingham. But five of their games are away from home which gives added importance to an improvement in that form. After Newcastle, they go to Derby, Reading, Manchester City and Portsmouth on the final day.
Realistically it’s going to take a horrendous run of form for Wigan or Middlesbrough now to be relegated. With the fixtures they have and the points already on the table it would appear they should have enough to be safe. Fulham, on the other hand, look to have too much to do even if they do meet five of their rivals. They must go from failing to win away for 19-and-a-half months to picking up two or three in the run-in. It just does not seem to be feasible. That leaves one place between Bolton, Newcastle, Birmingham and Sunderland. Bolton might just have enough quality to claw their way up but it will be close. And Sunderland’s home form should be able to push them to safety. Kevin Keegan has three massive matches at St James’ against relegation rivals and that will seal their fate. Defeat to Fulham (the Cottagers have won two and drawn the other of the last three in the north east) at the weekend will put immense pressure on the team and it’s still not certain they’ll be able to handle it. Birmingham could well be the team to go. They have crucial six-pointers away from home and all four remaining home games are against teams in the top half of the table.
To be relegated: Derby, Fulham, Birmingham. Bolton and Newcastle just survive.
